A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
